It’s not that simple
It’s not that simple is a podcast by Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation dedicated to major interviews with international personalities linked to politics, economy, and society. Conducted by renowned journalist Pedro Mendonça Pinto, the conversations with our special guests aim to demystify and simplify some of the most fascinating and relevant topics of our time. They will be objective, frontal, informal and informed dialogues to clarify why some issues «are not that simple».
The Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation was founded in 2009 by Alexandre Soares dos Santos and his family to study the country’s major hindrances and bring them to the attention of the Portuguese people. The Foundation’s mission is to promote and expand the objective knowledge of Portugal today, thereby helping to develop society, strengthen the rights of citizens and improve public institutions and to cooperate in endeavors to identify, study and resolve society's problems. The Foundation is independent of political organizations and has no ideological affiliation with any political party. Its work is guided by the principles of human dignity and social solidarity and the values of democracy, freedom, equal opportunities, merit, and pluralism. www.ffms.pt
It’s not that simple
INFLATION, with Ricardo Reis
What if a single mistake by the European Central Bank could send Europe into a recession? Ricardo Reis, one of the most awarded Portuguese economists of his generation, dismantles the myths around inflation and shows why keeping it under control is a delicate art - with inevitable costs.
In this episode of It’s Not That Simple, the professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, dismantles the idea that this variable can be easily controlled - especially when political decisions, public expectations, and global shocks intersect.
In this conversation, Ricardo Reis reminds that the pandemic and the war in Ukraine were two major tests for monetary policy. In 2020, central banks feared deflation and lowered interest rates. In 2021, people spent more than expected - and inflation surged. When the second shock hit - the war - expectations were already unanchored. «It was this accumulated error that made 2022 inflation more persistent».
The response - raising rates - worked. «Inflation fell without unemployment rising, but it would have dropped faster if there had been a recession». That’s the dilemma that Reis knows well, because he is also an academic consultant to the Bank of England, the Riksbank and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
And now? The worst is behind us, but expectations have changed. The trust in the ECB is no longer what it once was.
The tariffs imposed by the US on imported goods are the next test, according to the professor. «They’ll generate domestic inflation and a recession», but the risk is global, as they trigger trade wars and could force Europe to retaliate. Could the result be a recession in Europe, as well?